Research program : Early Economic Developments

I am very much interested in historical topics in general, and in particular in applying new methods to old stories. These methods can be either econometrics (as for the paper on Punishment in the Middle Ages) or quantitative theory, to assess whether historical events can be explained within the context of general equilibrium theory with rational agents. The idea is not to push economics as an all-encompassing science but rather to propose approaches complementing those of the historians, so that hopefully further progress can be made from this confrontation.


Easter Island Collapse: a Tale of Population Race

The Easter Island tragedy has become an allegory for ecological catastrophe and a warning for the future. In this paper,we propose an alternative story of its collapse involving non-cooperative bargaining between clans to share the crop. Each clan's bargaining power depends on its threat level when fighting a war. The biggest group has the highest probability of winning. In the quest for greater bargaining power, each clan's optimal size depends on that of the other clan, and a population race follows. The paper also makes a significant methodological contribution: it is the first fertility model to include strategic complementarities between group fertility decisions.

Easter Island

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Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Sweden

In the paper Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Sweden: 1750-2050, we address two issues:

  • To what extent can models estimated on modern data be used to account for growth patterns in the past?
  • Can information on historical patterns help to improve long term forecasting of economic growth ?
Thomas Lindh and Bo Malmberg

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Medical Effectiveness in England, 1500-1900

A theory providing an original view on how medical progresses have changed inequality, and have improved health and life expectancy

We give a rationale for individual health expenditures even when medicine is not effective in postponing death, as it was the case prior to 1700. We then explain the rise of effective medicine by a learning process function of expenditure on health.

 Life expectancy of Aristocrats and Commons

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The rise in schooling in England and the availability of schools, 1500-1860

Investment in education depends on the availability of schools. In a model mixing growth and geography, we show that higher population density enables the set-up costs of additional schools to be covered, opening the possibility to reach higher educational levels.

The prediction of the model are consistent with the available evidence for England, where it is shown that schools were established at a high rate over the period 1540-1620.

This model provides a mechanism through which higher population density may trigger the transition from stagnation to growth.

Literacy and schools in England

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To Fine or to Punish in the Late Middle Ages: 1424-1536

Looking at the budget of the Court of Nivelles over the late Middle Ages, we identify by means of econometric methods a structural change witnessing the transition from a medieval fine-base system into a modern system based on punishment.

To fine or to punish in Nivelles

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