We forecast income growth over the period 2000-2050 in the US,
Canada, and France. To ground the forecasts on relationships that
are as robust as possible to changes in the environment, we use a
quantitative theoretical approach which consists in calibrating and
simulating a general equilibrium model. Compared to existing
studies, we allow for life uncertainty and migrations, use
generational accounting studies to link taxes and public
expenditures to demographic changes, and take into account the
interaction between education and work experience. Forecasts show
that growth will be weaker over the period 2010-2040. The gap
between the US and the two other countries is increasing over time.
France will catch-up and overtake Canada in 2020. Investigating
alternative policy scenarios, we show that increasing the effective
retirement age to 63 would be most profitable for France, reducing
its gap with the US by one third. A decrease in social security
benefits would slightly stimulate growth but would have no real
impact on the gap between the countries.