• I am a Lecturer (Chargé de cours) at UC Louvain working at the Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences within LIDAM at the Faculty of Science.

    Prior to moving at UC Louvain, I held a Visiting professor position at Ghent University affiliated with the Department of Applied Mathematics, Computer Science and Statistics within the Faculty of Sciences and a Postdoctoral position at KU Leuven affiliated with the ORSTAT department within the Faculty of Economics and Business.

    My research focuses on: Models for high-dimensional data, Probabilistic graphical models, Social network models, Copula models and Information criteria.


List of publications

Technical reports

Publications

Proceedings

Book chapters

Software

R packages

Some R packages accompanying the papers are available for free download.





This software comes as it is. No guarantee whatsoever is given. The author(s) cannot be held responable for any misunderstanding, incorrect use, false scientific conclusions or other problems using these programs. In case bugs are discovered, please feel free to contact me.


Service to the profession

Involvement

I am currently in charge of organizing the regular Statistical/Econometrics seminars at ISBA . A list of the upcoming seminars can be found here .

As part of the open-science paradigme that UCLouvain strongly believes in, I am currently together with other colleagues at UCLouvain, developing the RShiny@UCLouvain platform that will host didactical apps created in Shiny for classroom usage.

One-day-ahead predictions

COVID - 19

To contribute to the understanding of the effect of the spread of the COVID-19 virus on the health care system in Belgium, I have developed a SHINY app that predicts one day ahead the amount of hospitalized and ICU patients, as well as the total number of deaths as a result of the virus.
https://eugenpircalabelu.shinyapps.io/covid19-forecasting .



More on the subject here: https://uclouvain.be/fr/instituts-recherche/lidam/actualites/how-can-we-predict-the-evolution-of-covid-19-in-belgium.html .



22/04/2020: Our analysis shows that the number of hospitalized patients and patiencts in ICU is on slightly decaying trends. For the number of deaths, the model still foresees increments for the coming period.

15/04/2020: Our analysis shows that the number of hospitalized patients and patiencts in ICU is stabilizing. Regarding the number of deaths, the model still foresees increments for the coming period.

10/04/2020: Our analysis shows that the number of hospitalized patients is reducing, while the number of patients in ICU is stablizing. Due to the latests developments regarding the reporting in nursing homes and recent additions of extra cases that were not reported previously, a model suggesting a steep growth rate is still plausible.

06/04/2020: Our analysis shows that the number of people hospitalized continues to stabilize. The model predicted for the first time a value lower than the one predicted the day before. The number of ICU patients seems to stabilize as well. The number of deaths has probably exited an exponential growth regime and entered a linear increment phase, which implies that for the following days the number of deaths will most probably still increase. Relative to a SIR model the observed incidence is lower, suggesting the effect of the lockdown measures is now visible in hindering the infections.

01/04/2020: Our analysis shows that the time effect seems to dampen for the number of people hospitalized, resulting in a more stable number of new people being hospitalized in the coming period. The number of ICU patients seems to have exited an exponential regime and entered a linear increment faze in the coming period. As the ICU capacity is limited, one still needs a close monitoring of this indicator in the coming days. The number of deaths still follows an exponential rate at this point in time, which implies that for the following days the number of deaths will most probably still raise.
Get in Touch

Contact

Room d.125, 1st floor; Voie du Roman Pays 20, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium