Academic Writings

Unpublished research papers

• The Economics of Childlessness [with T. Baudin, P. Gobbi]
  

  haiku | abstract | article | Baudin | Gobbi

• Political Fragmentation, Forced Mobility,and Knowledge Accumulation in Europe before 1800 [with S. Becker, S. Ottinger, N. Voigtlaender]
  

  haiku | abstract | slides | Becker | Ottinger | Voigtlaender

• Flora, Cosmos, Salvatio: Pre-modern Academic Institutions and the Spread of Ideas, CEPR Discussion Paper 20569, 2025 [with R. Scebba, C. Zanardello]
  

  haiku | abstract | article | slides | video | video | blog | blog | Scebba | Zanardello

• The Professors Who Would Become Popes, LIDAM Discussion Paper IRES 2025 / 11 [with M. Vitale]
  

  abstract | article | Vitale

Journal Articles

Note 1: Downloadable pdf's for non-commercial research and educational use only and provided that full bibliographic reference is given if used.

Note 2: I am more than happy when other people use the data we built for research purposes. Where such data sharing leads to research findings in any format (book, journal article, working paper, student thesis or seminar work), full and appropriate acknowledgement, via citation of the related article, should be made.

• forthcoming
  • The Emergence of the Child Quantity-Quality Tradeoff - insights from early modern academics, The Economic Journal [with T. Baudin]
    

    haiku | article | data | slides | Baudin

• 2026
  • Academic Human Capital in European Countries and Regions, 1200-1793, Explorations in Economic History, 101, 101756, 2026 [with M. Curtis, F. Manfredini, M. Vitale]
    

    abstract | article | data | blog | Curtis | Manfredini | Vitale

  • Winners and Losers from the Protestant Reformation: An Analysis of the Network of European Universities Journal of Economic History, 86(2), 460-500, 2026 [with P. Morault]
    

    article | appendix | slides | blog | photo | Morault

  • Seeds of Knowledge: Premodern Scholarship, Academic Fields, and European Growth, European Economic Review, 185, 105299, 2026 [with M. Curtis]
    

    haiku | article | slides | codes | interview | Curtis

  • Louvain Scholars on the Move: Networks and Mobility Patterns at the Early University of Louvain. An Analysis of Academic Mobility (1425–1797) Students, Scholars and Their Books at the University of Louvain (1425–1797) (Violet Soen, Wouter Druwé, Wim François, Ralph Dekoninck eds), 2026 [with M. Vitale]

    article | Vitale

• 2025
  • Strategic Fertility, Education Choices, and Conflicts in Deeply Divided Societies Journal of the European Economic Association 23, 521-553 [with E. Bezin and B. Chabé-Ferret]
    

    abstract | article | appendix | codes | slides | photo | Bezin | Chabé-Ferret

• 2024
  • Nepotism vs. Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital in Academia (1088-1800) Journal of Economic Growth 29, 469–514 [with M. Goñi]
    

    abstract | article | appendix | codes | slides | blog | interview | photo | Goñi

  • The Academic Market and the Rise of Universities in Medieval and Early Modern Europe (1000-1800) Journal of the European Economic Association 22(4), 1541–1589 [with F. Docquier, A. Fabre and R. Stelter]
    

    haiku | article | appendix | codes and data | slides | Docquier | Fabre | Stelter

• 2023
  • Catholic Censorship and the Demise of Knowledge Production in Early Modern Italy, The Economic Journal, 133(656), 2899-2924 [with F. Blasutto]
    

    haiku | abstract | article | appendix | codes and data | slides | photo | Blasutto

  • Driven by Institutions, Shaped by Culture: Human Capital and the Secularization of Marriage in Italy International Economic Review, 64(4), 1777-1818 [with F. Mariani and M. Mercier]
    

    haiku | article | slides | Mariani | Mercier

  • Women in European Academia before 1800 - Religion, Marriage, and Human Capital, European Review of Economic History, 27(4), 506-532 [with M. Vitale]
    

    abstract | article | appendix | slides | blog | blog | Vitale

• 2022
  • Population Homeostasis in Sub-Saharan Africa, Economics and Human Biology 45, 101102 [with P. Gobbi]
    

    abstract | article | appendix | slides | Gobbi

• 2021
  • A Soul’s View of the Optimal Population Problem, Mathematical Social Sciences 112, 98-108 [with M. Doepke]
    

    teaser | abstract | article | slides | Doepke

  • Childbearing Postponement, its Option Value, and the Biological Clock, Journal of Economic Theory 193, 105231 [with A. Pommeret]
    

    teaser | abstract | article | appendix | slides | photo | Pommeret

  • Leaders and Laggards in Life Expectancy among European Scholars from the Sixteenth to the Early Twentieth Century, Demography 58, 111–135 [with R. Stelter and M. Myrskylä]
    

    abstract | article | appendix | slides | Stelter | Myrskylä

• 2020
  • Endogenous Childlessness and Stages of Development, Journal of the European Economic Association 18, 83-133 [with T. Baudin and P. Gobbi]

    teaser | abstract | article | appendix | slides | data | video | video | photo | citation | Baudin | Gobbi

• 2019
  • A la découverte des professeurs de l’ancienne université d’Aix, depuis ses origines à 1793, Annales du Midi, 131(307-308), 379-402 [avec A. Fabre]
    

    abstract | article | appendix | data | blog | map | Fabre

  • Childlessness and Economic Development: A Survey, in Human Capital and Economic Growth: The Impact of Health, Education and Demographic Change , A. Bucci, A. Prskawetz, and K. Prettner eds, Palgrave - MacMillan, p55-90 [with T. Baudin and P. Gobbi]

    abstract | article | Baudin | Gobbi

  • Childlessness, Celibacy and Net Fertility in Pre-Industrial England: The Middle-class Evolutionary Advantage, Journal of Economic Growth, 24, 223–256 [with E. Schneider and J. Weisdorf]
    

    teaser | abstract | article | appendix | slides | data | citation | Schneider | Weisdorf

  • Key Forces Behind the Decline of Fertility - Lessons from Childlessness in Rouen before the Industrial Revolution, Cliometrica, 13, 25–54 [with S. Brée]

    teaser | article | citation | Brée

  • Structural changes in the labor market and the rise of early retirement in France and Germany, German Economic Review, 20, e38-e69 [with A. Batyra, O. Pierrard, H. Sneessens]

    abstract | article | citation | Batyra| Pierrard | Sneessens

• 2018
  • How Far Can Economic Incentives Explain the French Fertility and Education Transition?, European Economic Review, 108, 221-245 [with F. Perrin]

    teaser | abstract | article | slides | data | photo | photo | citation | Perrin

  • Religions, Fertility, and Growth in South-East Asia, International Economic Review, 59, 907-946, 2018 [with C. Delavallade]

    teaser | abstract | article | appendix | slides | photo | citation | Delavallade

  • Clans, Guilds, and Markets: Apprenticeship Institutions and Growth in the Pre-Industrial Economy, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133, 1-70, 2018 [with M. Doepke and J. Mokyr]

    teaser | abstract | article | appendix | data | slides | blog | press | citation | Doepke | Mokyr

• 2017
  • Population Density, Fertility, and Demographic Convergence in Developing Countries, Journal of Development Economics, 127, 13-24, 2017 [with P. Gobbi]

    teaser | abstract | article | appendix | data | photo | citation | Gobbi

  • Did Longer Lives Buy Economic Growth? From Malthus to Lucas and Ben-Porath. In M. Cervellati and U. Sunde (eds), Demographic Change and Long-Run Development, 69-89, Cambridge MA: MIT Press, 2017.

    teaser | abstract | article | slides | photo | citation

• 2016
  • The relevance of quantitative economic theory for historical demography. In Koen Matthijs; Saskia Hin, Jan Kok, Hideko Matsuo (eds), Demographic Change and Long-Run Development, Leuven: Acco, 2016.

    teaser | article | slides

• 2015
  • Fertility and Childlessness in the United States, American Economic Review, 105, 1852-1882, 2015 [with T. Baudin and P. Gobbi]

    teaser | abstract | article | appendix | slides | data & code | blog | wikipedia | citation | Baudin | Gobbi

  • From Polygyny to Serial Monogamy: a Unified Theory of Marriage Institutions, Review of Economic Studies, 82, 565-607, 2015 [with F. Mariani]

    teaser | abstract | article | appendix | slides | blog | wikipedia | citation | Mariani

  • The Longevity of Famous People from Hammurabi to Einstein, Journal of Economic Growth, 20, 263–303, 2015 [with O. Licandro]

    teaser | abstract | article | appendix | slides | data | blog | blog | photo | citation | Licandro

  • An Incentive Mechanism to Break the Low-skill Immigration Deadlock, Review of Economic Dynamics, 18, 593-618, 2015 [with F. Docquier]

    teaser | abstract | article | slides | data & codes | citation | Docquier

• 2014
  • L’expansion de l’éducation en Afrique annonce-t-elle sa transition démographique?, Dounia - revue d'intelligence stratégique et de relations internationales, 7, 33-50, 2014 [with P. Gobbi]

    teaser | article | citation | Gobbi

  • Brain Drain and Economic Performance in Small Islands Developing States. In: Andrés Artal-Tur, Giovanni Peri, and Francisco Requena-Silvente (eds): The Socio-Economic Impact of Migration flows. Effects on Trade, Remittances, Output, and the Labour Market, Chapter 6, 123-144, Cham: Springer, 2014. [with F. Docquier and M. Schiff].

    teaser | article | citation | Docquier Schiff

  • Why Corrupt Governments May Receive More Foreign Aid, Oxford Economic Papers, 66, 51-66, 2014 [with C. Delavallade].

    teaser | abstract | article | appendix | citation | Delavallade

• 2013
  • The Child is Father of the Man - Implications for the Demographic Transition, The Economic Journal, 123, 236-261, 2013 [with O. Licandro].

    teaser | abstract | article | slides | appendix | photo | citation | Licandro

  • Aging and Pension In General Equilibrium: Labor Market Imperfections Matter, Journal of Economics Dynamics and Control, 37, 104-124, 2013 [with O. Pierrard and H. Sneessens]

    teaser | abstract | article | codes | citation | Pierrard | Sneessens

• 2012
  • Missing Daughters, Missing Brides?, Economics Letters, 116, 358-360, 2012 [with H. d'Albis]
    

    teaser | abstract | article | online simulation | press | citation | d'Albis

  • Do Brain Drain and Poverty Result from Coordination Failures? , Journal of Economic Growth, 17, 1-26, 2012 [with F. Docquier].

    teaser | abstract | article | slides | citation | Docquier

  • How Powerful is Demography? The Serendipity Theorem Revisited,Journal of Population Economics, 25, 899-922, 2012 [with P. Pestieau and G. Ponthière].

    teaser | abstract | article | citation | Pestieau | Ponthière

  • The Natalist Bias of Pollution Control, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 63, 271-287, 2012 [with A. Gosseries]

    teaser | abstract | article | slides | citation | Gosseries | corrigendum

• 2011
  • Democracy, Rule of Law, Corruption Incentives and Growth, Journal of Public Economic Theory, 13, 155-187, 2011 [with C. Delavallade].

    teaser | abstract | article | citation | Delavallade

  • The Tradeoff Between Growth and Redistribution: ELIE in an Overlapping Generations Model, in Macrojustice : A pluridisciplinary evaluation of Kolm's theory, C. Gamel and M. Lubrano eds, Springer, 307-339, 2011 [with M. Lubrano]

    teaser | abstract | article | blog | citation | Lubrano

  • Vintage capital growth theory: Three breakthroughs, Frontiers of Economic Growth and Development, de La Grandville eds, Emerald Group Publishing, chap 5, 87-116, 2011.[with R. Boucekkine and O. Licandro]

    teaser | article | citation | Boucekkine | Licandro

  • Education Funding and the Sustainability of Diverse Societies, in The Political Function of Education in Deeply Divided Countries, Theodor Hanf ed., Nomos, 321-332, 2011.

    teaser | article | citation

• 2010
  • Would Empowering Women Initiate the Demographic Transition in Least-Developed Countries ?, Journal of Human Capital, 4, 85-129, 2010 [with M. Vander Donckt].

    teaser | abstract | article | citation

  • On the Golden Rule of Capital Accumulation under Endogenous Longevity, Mathematical Social Sciences, 59, 227-238, 2010 [with G. Ponthière]

    teaser | abstract | article | citation | Ponthière

  • Adult Longevity and Economic Take-off: from Malthus to Ben-Porath, in Institutional and Social Dynamics of Growth and Distribution, Neri Salvadori ed., Cheltenham UK: Edward Elgard, chap 8, 172-190, 2010.

    teaser | article | slides | citation

• 2009
  • A Note on Inflation Persistence in a Fair Wage Model of the Business Cycle, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 13, 673-684, 2009 [with G. de Walque, R. Wouters].

    teaser | abstract | article | citation | de Walque | Wouters

  • Growth, Public Investment and Corruption with Failing Institutions, Economics of Governance, 10, 187-219, 2009 [with C. Delavallade].

    teaser | abstract | article | slides | data | citation | Delavallade

  • Population Policy through Tradable Procreation Entitlements, International Economic Review, 50, 507-542, 2009 [with A. Gosseries].

    teaser | abstract | article | slides | discussion | wikipedia | citation | Gosseries

  • To Segregate or to Integrate: Education Politics and Democracy, Review of Economic Studies, 76, 597-628, 2009 [with M. Doepke].

    teaser | abstract | article | slides | data | blog | citation | Doepke

  • Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Sweden: 1750-2050, Journal of Macroeconomics, 31, 132-148, 2009 [with T. Lindh and B. Malmberg].

    teaser | abstract | article | citation | Lindh | Malmberg

  • A Theory of Medical Effectiveness, Differential Mortality, Income Inequality and Growth for Pre-Industrial England, Mathematical Population Studies, 16, 1-34, 2009 [with A. Sommacal].

    teaser | abstract | article | citation | Sommacal

• 2008
  • Disentangling the Demographic Determinants of the English Take-off: 1530-1860, Population and Development Review Supplement, Population Aging, Human Capital Accumulation, and Productivity Growth, Alexia Prskawetz, David E. Bloom, and Wolfgang Lutz (eds.), 126-148, 2008 [with R. Boucekkine and D. Peeters].

    article | citation | Boucekkine | Peeters

  • Easter Island Collapse: a Tale of Population Race, Journal of Economic Growth, 13, 27-55, 2008 [with D. Dottori].

    teaser | abstract | article | slides | photo | citation | Dottori

  • Swedish Economic Growth and Education Since 1800, Canadian Journal of Economics, 41, 166-185, 2008 [with T. Lindh and B. Malmberg]

    teaser | abstract | article | slides | data | citation | Lindh | Malmberg

• 2007
  • School Attendance and Skill Premia in France and the US: A General Equilibrium Approach , Fiscal Studies, 18, 383-416, 2007 [with F. Docquier].

    teaser | abstract | article | citation | Docquier

  • Income Growth in the 21st Century: Forecasts with an Overlapping Generations Model, International Journal of Forecasting, 23, 621-635, 2007 [with F. Docquier and P. Liegeois].

    teaser | abstract | article | slides | code | citation | Docquier | Liégeois

  • Procreation, Migration, and Tradable Quotas, in Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy, R. Clark, A.Mason and N. Ogawa eds, Cheltenham, UK:Edward Elgar Publishing, 227-249, 2007 [with A. Gosseries].

    teaser | article | discussion | citation | Gosseries

  • Education and growth with endogenous debt constraints, Economic Theory, 33, 509-530, 2007 [with P. Michel].

    teaser | abstract | article | slides | photo | citation | Michel

  • Early literacy achievements, population density and the transition to modern growth, Journal of the European Economic Association, 5, 183-226, 2007 [with R. Boucekkine and D. Peeters].

    teaser | abstract | article | slides | codes | citation | Boucekkine | Peeters

• 2006
  • Financial Institutional Reform, Growth, and Equality, Institutions, Development, and Economic Growth, T. Eicher and C. Garcia Peñalosa eds, MIT Press, 33-64, 2006 [with C. Azariadis].

    teaser | abstract | article | slides | citation | Azariadis

• 2004
  • Wealth breeds decline: Reversals of leadership and consumption habits, Journal of Economic Growth, 9, 423-449, 2004 [with L. Artige and C. Camacho].

    teaser | abstract | article | slides | citation | Artige | Camacho

  • Modelling vintage structures with DDEs: principles and applications, Mathematical Population Studies, 11, 151-179, 2004 [with R. Boucekkine and O. Licandro].

    teaser | abstract | article | citation | Boucekkine | Licandro

  • How should the allocation of resources adjust to the baby bust?, Journal of Public Economic Theory, 6, 607-636, 2004 [with G. Mahieu and A. Rillaers].

    teaser | abstract | article | citation

  • Public versus private education when differential fertility matters, Journal of Development Economics, 73, 607-629, 2004 [with M. Doepke]

    teaser | abstract | article | citation | Doepke

• 2003
  • Inequality and growth: why differential fertility matters, American Economic Review, 93, 1091-1113, 2003 [with M. Doepke]

    teaser | abstract | article | slides | data | codes | citation | Doepke

  • Early mortality declines at the dawn of modern growth, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 105, 401-418,2003 [with R. Boucekkine and O. Licandro].

    teaser | abstract | article | slides | data | citation | Boucekkine | Licandro

  • Information technologies, embodiment and growth, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 27, 2007-2034, 2003 [with R. Boucekkine]

    teaser | abstract | article | citation | Boucekkine

• 2002
  • Vintage human capital, demographic trends and endogenous growth, Journal of Economic Theory, 104, 340-375, 2002 [with R. Boucekkine and O. Licandro]

    teaser | abstract | article | slides | citation | Boucekkine | Licandro

  • Policy reforms and growth in computable OLG economies, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 26, 2093-2113, 2002 [with M. Bouzahzah and F. Docquier]

    teaser | abstract | article | code | citation | Bouzahzah | Docquier

  • Technological shocks and IT revolutions, Recherches Economiques de Louvain, 68, 75-89, 2002 [with R. Boucekkine and Y. Vailakis]

    abstract | article | citation | Boucekkine | Vailakis

• 2001
  • Altruism and self-restraint, Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, 63-64, 233-259, 2001. [with P. Michel]

    teaser | article | citation | Michel

  • Growth dynamics and education spending: the role of inherited tastes and abilities, European Economic Review, 45, 1415-1438, 2001.

    teaser | abstract | article | citation

  • Standard-of-living aspirations and economic cycles, in Advances in Macroeconomic Theory, IEA Conference volume No 133, Jacques H. Drèze eds, 255-282, 2001.

    teaser | article | slides | citation

• 2000
  • Irreversibilities, uncertainty and underemployment equilibria, Spanish Economic Review, 2, 249-266, 2000. [with O. Licandro]

    teaser | abstract | article | citation | Licandro

  • Labor market dynamics when effort depends on wage growth comparisons, Empirical Economics, 25, 393-420, 2000. [with F. Palm and J.P. Urbain]

    article | citation | Palm | Urbain

  • Education funding and regional convergence, Journal of Population Economics, 13, 403-424, 2000. [with P. Monfort]

    teaser | abstract | article | citation

  • Myopic and perfect foresight in the OLG model, Economics Letters, 67, 53-60, 2000. [with P. Michel]

    teaser | abstract | article | citation | Michel

  • Gift exchange and the business cycle: the fair wage strikes back, Review of Economic Dynamics, 3, 166-193, 2000. [with F. Collard]
    

    teaser | abstract | article | citation | Collard

• 1999
  • Life expectancy and endogenous growth, Economics Letters, 65, 255-263, 1999. [with O. Licandro]

    teaser | abstract | article | slides | citation | Licandro

  • Efficient bargaining and underutilization of labor, Journal of Economics, 69, 127-139, 1999. [with P. Dehez and E. Toulemonde]

    article | citation | Dehez | Toulemonde

  • Optimal growth when tastes are inherited, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 23, 519-537, 1999. [with P. Michel]

    teaser | abstract | article | citation | Michel

• 1998
  • Growth and the relativity of satisfaction, Mathematical Social Sciences, 36, 105-125, 1998.

    teaser | article | citation

  • Intertemporal substitution in import demand and habit formation, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 13, 589-612, 1998. [with J.P. Urbain]

    teaser | article | citation | Urbain

• 1996
  • The dynamics of bequeathed tastes, Economics Letters 51, 89-96, 1996.

    teaser | abstract | article | citation

  • Envy-minimizing unemployment benefits, Economic Design 2, 119-146, 1996. [with C. Arnsperger]

    article | citation | Arnsperger

  • A dynamic contracting model for wages and employment in three European economies, European Economic Review 40, 429-448, 1996. [with F. Palm and G. Pfann]

    article | citation | Palm | Pfann

  • Are real interest rate responsible for unemployment in the eighties? A Bayesian analysis of cointegrated relationships with a regime shift, Advances in Econometrics 11B, 147-184, 1996. [with M. Lubrano]

    teaser | article | citation | Lubrano

  • To Fine or To Punish in the Late Middle Ages: a Time Series Analysis of Justice Administration in Nivelles: 1424 - 1536, Applied Economics 28, 1213-1224, 1996. [with X. Rousseaux and J.P. Urbain]

    teaser | abstract | article | citation | Rousseaux | Urbain

• 1995
  • Underemployment, irreversibilities and growth under trade unionism, Scandinavian Journal of Economics 97, 385-399, 1995. [with O. Licandro]
    

    article | Licandro

  • Efficient over-manning, Oxford Economic Papers 47, 493-500, 1995. [with E. Toulemonde]
    

    article | Toulemonde

  • Underemployment of production factors in a forward-looking model, Labour Economics 2, 109-130, 1995. [with J.F. Fagnart]
    

    article | Fagnart

  • Unemployment and Capacity Under-utilization in a Tobin's q model, Recherches Economiques de Louvain 61, 403-432, 1995.
    

    article

  • The Dynamics of Unemployment, Capacity Constraints and Demand Shortages, Annales d'Economie et de Statistique 37/38, 441-463, 1995. [with J.F. Fagnart]
    

    article | Fagnart

• 1994
  • Wage Interdependence through Decentralized Bargaining, Journal of Economic Surveys 8, 371-403, 1994.
    

    article

  • Employment Response to Supply and Demand Shocks Under Envy in Wage Formation, De Economist 142, 1-17, 1994.
    

    article

• 1993
  • Bargaining and equilibrium unemployment: narrowing the gap between New Keynesian and " Disequilibrium" theories, European Journal of Political Economy 9, 163-190, 1993.[with C. Arnsperger]
    

    article | Arnsperger

  • Wage Interdependence and Competitiveness, Recherches Economiques de Louvain 59, 395-425, 1993.

    teaser | article | citation

  • Externalities in Wage Formation and Structural Unemployment, Annales d'Economie et de Statistique 32, 17-41, 1993.
    

    article

  • The q Theory of Investment under Unit Root Tests, Cahiers Economiques de Bruxelles 139, 329-339, 1993. [with O. Licandro]

    abstract | article | citation | Licandro

• 1992
  • Investment under Demand Uncertainty and Capacity Constraints, Economie et Prevision 106, 85-95, 1992. [with O. Licandro]

    teaser | article | citation | Licandro

  • Wage Bargaining, Social Security and Capital-Labour Substitution, Cahiers Economiques de Bruxelles 133, 73-97, 1992.

    teaser | abstract | article | citation

• 1990
  • Wage Bargaining With a Price-Setting Firm, Bulletin of Economic Research 42, 285-298, 1990. [with C. Arnsperger]

    teaser | abstract | article | citation | Arnsperger